The Ukraine brought war to Russia's doorstep with a recent cross-border attack into the Kursk region of Russia. As Russia has been making slow but steady progress inside Ukraine’s borders, we asked Russia-Ukraine expert Paul D’Anieri to assess Ukraine’s motivations for taking the war onto Russian soil, and whether this may help to bring about an agreement to end the conflict. D’Anieri is a political scientist and the author of “Ukraine and Russia: From Civilized Divorce to Uncivil War.” In 2017-18, D’Anieri served as a fellow in the Harvard University Ukrainian Research Institution.
Q: An analyst observed the Ukrainian incursion straddles a line between "masterstroke and miscalculation." What are yourthoughts/concurrence?
D’Anieri: I think that’s about right. While the incursion is clearly a big morale booster for Ukrainians and a political problem for Putin and his military leaders, it’s not clear that it will alter the key battles, and if the Ukrainian invasion is eventually rebuffed at a high cost to the Ukrainian forces, it may turn out to look like a mistake.
Q: How is Putin framing this incursion to the Russian people?
D’Anieri: Putin took the rare step of appearing on TV dressing down the military leadership, so it’s clear he sees this as a political problem. It has shattered the perception of Russia’s invulnerability, and thousands of people are being evacuated. Russia’s military bloggers blame the incursion on the military leadership (which is permitted) not on Putin (which is not permitted), so one speculates that some military leaders my lose their jobs to serve as scapegoats.
Q: What is the current disposition of the Russian people toward the war?
D’Anieri: Obviously, this is a bad week for those displaced by the Ukrainian incursion, but the Russian economy is doing well for the time being and most Russians seem to support the war, even if only passively.
Q: Any thoughts on what Zelensky’s end game may be? Just to alarm the Russian people? Is it feasible for Ukraine to hold territory such as the city of Kursk?
D’Anieri: I think there are several Ukrainian goals. The first one, which is to provide a morale boost in Ukraine, has already been achieved. Similarly, the Russian military has already been embarrassed. A second goal is to force Russia to divert forces from the front line in eastern Ukraine, where they have been pounding Ukrainian forces this year and making gradual territorial gains. It’s not yet clear whether Russia will do this, or be able to defeat the incursion with reserves brought from elsewhere. A third goal is that Ukraine’s bargaining position in any peace negotiations will be dramatically strengthened if it is holding Russian territory.
Q: What reason did Russia have to believe its invasion of Ukraine would be a short operation – days or weeks. What did Putin, et al., miss?
D’Anieri: To simplify, we can point to three huge errors. The first was to underestimate the fighting capacity of the Ukrainian military. To be fair to Putin, most western analysts and intelligence agencies made the same mistake. The second error is unique to Putin: he believed not only that Ukraine is not a “real state” but that Ukrainians believe this. Therefore, he expected that many Ukrainians would welcome Russian forces. In fact, they have rallied in many ways to fight the invaders. Partly because of these errors, the Russians made a third mistake, which was to send a force that was too small, and was not prepared to meet stiff resistance.
Q: What are the stakes for Ukraine in the pending U.S. elections?
D’Anieri: It’s hard to say. The standard narrative is that Donald Trump is likely to cut aid for Ukraine and support an end to the war on terms favorable to Russia, while Kamala Harris will support more aid to Ukraine. That is likely true, but it’s not always easy to predict presidents’ policies based on what they say when they are running for office.
Q: Is there any Russian motivation for diplomacy toward ending the war?
D’Anieri: I have not seen any. Russia appears willing to endure a high cost to conquer Ukraine, and they appear to believe that the West will tire of aiding Ukraine before Russia tires of getting its soldiers killed there. That is why the U.S. election is seen as so important. This attack into Kursk region may be an effort by Ukraine to give Russia more interest in negotiating to end the war, but we’ll have to wait and see.
